Heating oil prices.
Simply compared.Heating oil prices.
Simply compared.

What changed. Fuel traders in Europe have marked diesel down since Friday, when the G7, which includes the UK, agreed to release emergency fuel stocks, with much of the diesel due within 20 days. Heating oil comes from the same part of the refinery as diesel, so the price of a fill has followed. Gulf producers are shipping more too: on four of the last seven days of September, more crude left the Middle East than before the war. On Monday Saudi Arabia cut its November price for Asian buyers to a six-year low, and traders knocked about 2% off crude oil. Not everyone expects the relief to last: on Tuesday the bank Goldman Sachs said diesel will stay unusually dear next to crude oil through 2027, because the world is short of working refineries. In Yemen, Saudi-backed forces say they have pushed the Houthis back from Bab al-Mandab, the narrow sea lane at the foot of the Red Sea; the Houthis deny it.

Your next fill. At Fueltool's UK average on Wednesday 7 October, a 1,000-litre fill costs about £1,150 including VAT, down from about £1,180 at our last brief on Sunday. That is still roughly £10 more than a week ago on the same basis, because the fall since Sunday has not yet undone all of the rise late last week.

What to watch. First, whether the emergency diesel arrives over the next two weeks as promised, and how much of the drop reaches supplier prices. Second, whether China lets its big refiners sell fuel abroad again after its national holiday, and whether Russia loosens its diesel export ban, which runs to the end of October. Third, the fighting around Bab al-Mandab, and any US answer to Iran's terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.