Heating oil prices.
Simply compared.Heating oil prices.
Simply compared.

What changed. Seven of the world's richest countries are opening their emergency fuel stores. On Friday the G7, which includes the UK, agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of oil and diesel over four months, with much of the diesel in the first 20 days. Heating oil follows diesel, so this is the news that matters most for a fill. Traders marked wholesale diesel in Europe sharply lower on the news, then won back part of the drop. Hours later President Trump ruled out a ban on US diesel exports, last week's big worry. The shortage has not gone away: Russia says it will not sell diesel abroad until sanctions are lifted, and Chinese refiners have stopped most fuel exports for October. A trade report on Thursday said Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, its route around the Strait of Hormuz, is back near its flow before last month's drone attacks. Iran said on Sunday that the Strait stays shut until the US accepts its terms.

Your next fill. At Fueltool's UK average on Sunday 4 October, a 1,000-litre fill costs about £1,180 including VAT. That is roughly £20 more than our last brief on Tuesday and £10 more than a week ago on the same basis, mostly from a rise on Thursday, when crude oil jumped on reports of a third US aircraft carrier heading for the Middle East.

What to watch. First, how quickly the emergency diesel reaches the market over the next 20 days, and whether Friday's drop in wholesale diesel shows up in supplier prices this week. Second, whether Russia and China keep their fuel exports shut into November. Third, whether the US and Iran find a way back to talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.