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Market Brief
Updated 2 April 2026

Oil markets have seen a dramatic shift this week. Brent crude has fallen sharply from its recent highs near $120 per barrel to around $101, after a diplomatic breakthrough on 31 March signalled a potential end to the month-long Iran conflict. A 15-point peace plan, brokered by Pakistan, offers Iran sanctions relief in exchange for nuclear facility decommissioning, and the US has indicated a possible military withdrawal within weeks. The geopolitical risk premium that had been propping up prices is now rapidly unwinding.

UK heating oil prices remain elevated despite the crude sell-off, with the national average around 137p per litre. Kerosene has been hit harder than crude because around 40% of Europe's jet fuel imports came through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed to Western shipping. The Government's £53 million support package is now live as of 1 April — in England, local authorities are distributing £27m via the new Crisis and Resilience Fund, with £17m for Northern Ireland, £4.6m for Scotland, and £3.8m for Wales. Contact your local council to check eligibility.

OPEC+ began adding 206,000 barrels per day this month, with a review meeting scheduled for 5 April. The big question is whether the Hormuz strait will reopen to Western tanker traffic — shipping analysts caution that routine transit may not resume for some time. However, with spring reducing heating demand and ceasefire talks progressing, there is genuine hope that prices will ease further in the coming weeks. If you need to order, compare quotes carefully on Fueltool as supplier price spreads remain historically wide.

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