Heating oil prices.
Simply compared.Heating oil prices.
Simply compared.

What changed. Saudi Arabia has shut its East-West oil pipeline after drone attacks, disrupting a route that carried crude to the Red Sea without passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the restricted sea route out of the Gulf. The closure adds another obstacle to getting oil to refineries. Buyers pushed Brent crude to around $108 a barrel in early Monday trading, adding fresh pressure to the cost of producing heating oil.

Your next fill. At Fueltool's UK average on Monday 14 September, a 1,000-litre fill costs about £1,180 including VAT. That is roughly £160 more than a week ago on the same basis. It is also about £30 above the cost quoted in Thursday's brief, so the rise has continued into the new week.

The background. The summer's shortage of refined fuel has not gone away. Refineries in Russia and the Middle East are still struggling with damage and disrupted exports, leaving less diesel and related fuels available. UK heating oil is kerosene and follows the wholesale cost of jet fuel, which is also kerosene-based. That is why restoring crude supplies alone would not immediately resolve the pressure on household bills.

What to watch. The first test is when Saudi Arabia can restart the pipeline; officials have not confirmed a repair timetable. The second is Wednesday's US fuel-stock report, which will show whether diesel and heating oil reserves have recovered further. America also supplies Europe, so those stocks matter here. The US Energy Information Administration expects unusually low reserves through winter, with autumn refinery maintenance limiting production as heating demand increases.