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Brent crude has fallen sharply this week, trading close to 79 dollars a barrel after dropping more than 5 per cent on Wednesday and around 10 per cent across the week as a whole. The move follows signs of progress in US-Iran diplomacy over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Qatar circulating a de-escalation proposal and Washington indicating an agreement could come soon. Kazakhstan has resumed crude flows through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, and OPEC+ has now completed the restoration of the supply cuts it introduced in 2023.

UK kerosene has held broadly steady through the same period. The Fueltool price tracker puts the average at roughly 92 pence per litre, down from around 93 pence in late July following a small rise at the turn of the month. Falls in the wholesale market typically take several days to reach depot pricing, so this week's drop in crude is not yet reflected in that figure.

The near-term direction depends largely on whether the Hormuz talks produce a firm agreement or stall. Refining margins on distillate remain elevated and Russian diesel supply is still constrained by attacks on refineries, both of which continue to support the middle of the barrel independently of crude. Domestic demand is at its seasonal low ahead of the autumn restocking period.