Heating oil prices.
Simply compared.Heating oil prices.
Simply compared.

What changed. Saudi oil exports are showing signs of recovery after last week's pipeline attack, and crude has fallen for four days in a row, to about $101 a barrel on Monday. Europe is not yet feeling much of the benefit. Saudi Aramco has reportedly told European refiners they will get none of their usual contract crude in October, while the recovering supply goes mainly to Asia.

Your next fill. At Fueltool's UK average on Monday 21 September, a 1,000-litre fill costs about £1,190 including VAT. That is roughly £40 less than in Wednesday's brief, but still about £30 more than a week ago on the same basis.

The background. The summer's shortage of refined fuel has not gone away. UK heating oil is kerosene and follows the wholesale cost of jet fuel and diesel, which come from the same part of the refinery. Damage and disrupted exports in Russia and the Middle East mean too few working refineries, and diesel at European pumps hit a record high this month. That is why cheaper crude has only trimmed the cost of a fill.

What to watch. First, whether the Saudi pipeline returns to full use; officials have suggested repairs could take several weeks. Second, whether European refiners can replace the missing Saudi deliveries in October. European Central Bank experts expect the extra cost of turning crude into diesel to peak in October, just as heating demand rises.